Witches -- Day Two

[Pleonast]

Talk at will.

[witch1]

Simulthread. Please merge them together, Pleo?

[witch6]

KidV is Town.

[witch1]

And KidV opened with a vote on Septy. We get to play with revealing our investigation on KidV and false-claiming we investigated Septy as Town.

I find it interesting that the two people who expressed doubts about me just before Dawn, Giraffe and IS, are now Dead. And I'm curious what M.Haye did.

My guess is the Wolves and Undead decided not to go after me, and there's only one Vampire. The third kill would be the Vig.

[Pleonast]

Aug 31, 2012 11:26:16 GMT -8 witch1 said:

Simulthread. Please merge them together, Pleo?

I wish I could but there doesn't seem to be a way to do that with ProBoards.

[witch6]

Now, about lying to the rest of Town.

I'm not sure I advise it. Even though Kid's come out of the gate with a vote on septimus. We need town to trust us, and if we claim one or more of us are Town then we've got big fat targets pasted on our backs and one protection between us.

[witch4]

Here's my proposed post. Comments?

* * * * * * * * *

When I asked him to talk about his vote for Peeker, he couldn't come up with the same answer twice. "Squirmed under pressure", to use Guiri's phrase.

Here's the post where KidV "said my piece about Septimus, in fact I have an open question hanging in front of him that he has wiggled away from answering several times... " :

I suppose you also want to know if I've stopped beating my wife. :eek:

It's illegal to post a link, but you can Google "idlemafia conspiracy 5" and read Peeker's posts from Day 1 in that game. He was actively discussing mechanics and offering advice on strategy. At the time he was a Town Mason; it was only later that he was recruited to the Cabal. In another game I partnered with Peeker as Mason. He was actively helping Town in the public thread in that game too.

In this game, Peeker has made many posts, but they are distracting posts -- has he made even one that's helpful? I realize anti-Town does not necessarily imply Scum, but a Scum player can hide within an obfuscatory anti-Town persona to escape a Lynch. ("Oh, it's just Peeker being Peeker.")

And you're still dodging the question. Why didn't you respond with this when your vote was first questioned? Why was it other reasons then, but this dissertation now?

Looks to me like you got caught in the spotlight and didn't know which way to jump. You didn't know exactly why you voted Peeker other than you saw an easy way to vote for a good player that isn't on your team, and didn't have an answer ready when called on it. Guiri is right, you squirmed under pressure and that's not something you can take back.

The reason you quote here is the one I gave originally, when I voted for three players:

Day 1 should be a time to review mechanics and discuss strategy. Instead we see jokes ... along with votes to Lynch someone discussing strategy. :smack: I've got nothing against jokes, mind you, and would be posting my own ... except no one ever finds my jokes amusing. :mad:

...

When peeker is Town, I think he tries to put some useful pro-Town purpose into his posts. I don't see that so far in this game:

Vote: peekercpa

...

My first vote was because his posts were unhelpful, so anti-Town. My explanatory post the same reason. You've really lost me, KidV

In the second post I did mention that if a player with penalties is Lynched, less is lost if it's a misLynch. Is that Scummy to say? :confused:

[witch4]

And the "white lie" concept is intended only for use instead of outting me as Witch. It's intended only if we get desperate and as an alternative to outting me as Witch which would make me an even bigger NK target.

I certainly don't think we should reveal our Investigation; it would only add weight to KidV's campaign.

I wish there was some way I could write "In spite of everything I really think you're Town, Kid" but of course only the Night Killers would pick up on it, not the Townies who want to Lynch me.

[witch1]

Thinking out loud...

Redirections:
* The Magician can redirect from themself to someone else.
-> If KidV is the Magician, he is Town and knows his target is also Town.
* The Cabal can redirect, once per game per Cabalist.
-> I think it's too early in the game for them to use their power, especially as they had no way of knowing who we would investigate.

Cloaked:
* The Omega Wolf shows up as Town to us.
-> There were 20 players alive at Night, of whom we know 3 to be Witches. Therefore there is a 1/17 chance that our target is the Omega Wolf.

THEREFORE, I consider it highly likely that our investigation was accurate.

Thoughts? Also, thoughts on when I should reveal our result?

[witch1]

Also -- if KidV and Septimus are the top lynch candidates Tuesday afternoon, I think we should let Septimus out himself and reveal the result on KidV, which I can then confirm.

[witch4]

If KidV and Septy are the top two candidates, we'll have to out both, but let's keep our options open for now.

Both KidV and Giraffe breadcrumbed like an Omega Wolf might. But I don't know how to deal with those possibilities beyond wait and see.

I may compose a public post on when/whether Witches should reveal Investigations. Good idea?

[witch1]

What do you mean, they breadcrumbed like an Omega Wolf might? And why would a Wolf have to breadcrumb anything?

[witch4]

Omega Wolf wants to be Investigated, by Masons or Witches, etc.

I won't look for posts right now, but Giraffe said he was "Town (non Witch)";
KidV said he was "Town but unimportant role." Either might have been hoping Mason would see that and Investigate.

[witch4]

I'm still afraid we will have to Reveal me. Even if I'm not the #1 Lynch candidate, it may be too dangerous to go into the final hours near the lead unrevealed.

We must choose between declaring me Witch, or declaring me Town via Investigation. It sounds like Ben and SisC prefer to out me as Witch, and I'll of course go along if that's the consensus. I do wonder if the "white lie" reveal would make me less of an inviting target for Night Kill. (You can equivocate on the reveal, speaking of Redirections and the Omega Wolf possibility, laying enough doubt that Vampires and Wolves might think I'm still Lynchable.)

I do not think we need worry about Town turning against Witches and their Town Reveals unless we do something very bizarre.

But it might be too bizarre to wait until last 24 hours to reveal that Lynch leader Investigated as Town. If we decide to go the "white lie" route, perhaps we should do it rather soon.

[witch1]

I agree - we should probably confirm you as Witch today. Colby is rising, I think he's now third at 4 votes, but you're still leading Pizza 7-6 after my unvote.

[witch6]

Yikes. WHat happened while i was away?

[witch4]

I'll go ahead and post a I am a Witch message.

Do you want to review it before I post?
Should I reveal the Investigation of KidV?

[witch1]

Vindy is pushing me, correctly, to reveal our investigation result. I'm highly inclined to do so very soon, as Dusk is in 27 hours.

The issue is -- do we reveal KidV as likely Town, or false-reveal Septimus as like Town?

The advantage of claiming Septy: We don't out him as a Witch.
The disadvantages: 1, we waste our opportunity to share information. 2, when we eventually reveal KidV, we lose credibility.

Thoughts, Sis?

[witch1]

Ohai, Septy.

Please, I'd like to review it.

I like my earlier idea of yes, you reveal yourself as a Witch and post the result. I can confirm the post.

Let's wait on Sis C to catch up and chime in.

[witch4]

It may be too late to play the "white lie" ploy. They might wonder why we waited so long.

Here's my proposed post:

* * * * * * * *

I am a Witch.

I want to apologize to Town for poor play that led to Lynch votes and forced me to claim. Outing a first Witch wasn't too bad -- at least we get a spokesman. Outing a second Witch was very negligent. :sciencefail:

The comments I made defending my vote against Peeker are, I think, the same comments I'd have made as vanilla Town, but there may have an element of "secret information" involved, at least initially -- fellow Witch Ben was attracting votes, so I wanted to build alternate wagons.

We Investigated last Night and found a Townie. I'm doubtful that revealing is best, unless the Townie is under Lynch pressure, but we Witches have poor credibility so far, so ...

KidVermicious is Town. (Or Omega Wolf. Or ... less likely? ... Witches were Redirected.)

So yes, my sudden conversion to the idea that KidV is Townie was also based on secret information. :smack:

[witch4]

If the Freemasons all role claim, it would increase our chance of guessing a Magic replacement Witch. Perhaps I should post, asking for discussion of the idea that Freemasons claim.

[witch1]

I like it. Sis C, are you in with this?

[witch1]

I think the Freemasons should not claim if they have not handshaked with each other -- they started this game not knowing the other Freemasons. So no point in asking them to claim.

[witch4]

That they don't know each other is one of the reasons to claim -- they confirm each other more quickly.

The question is: will Wolves and Vampires target claimed Masons (a weak role) or not? Either way, Town may lose little, but (unbeknonst to others) we get a better chance to find Magic replacements.

[witch1]

I think that's a weak reason -- there's no major benefit to the Masons to out themselves without pressure this early, especially as it's only for the sake of our Sekret P0wr.