Witches -- Night Three

[Pleonast]

You may protect or investigate, not both.

[witch6]

And remember that I can't try to recruit until I am "officially" dead -- my faction has been announced. So toMorrow morning, I think?

Unless I suddenly wake up alive, which would be nice. Unlikely, but nice.

And I don't want to wake up Undead. That would just suck.

[witch6]

Not giving up the information about Guiri also allows us to keep our mouths shut (well, you two to keep your mouths shut) about investigation or lack there of toNight.

Which raises the question of which we think will be more beneficial: an investigation of Red, or protection either of KidV or one of the two of you.

At this point, I'm almost leaning protection, though it's a 50/50 shot for both us and them. Might be better to pull that investigation and go from there.

Decisions, decisions.

[witch1]

Here's a thought: With the Vampire likely Dead, the Wolves have to consider whether to use their block-kill and their regular kill against both of us, risking a third Witch reporting information. I think it's unlikely they'll kill both of us Tonight.

A Vig that attacks us would be foolish.

So I think we can risk not protecting ourselves Tonight.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards investigating and trying to catch a Wolf.

[witch4]

Is our recruitment power the only special secret power that Town has? If so, the game should have started with at least 2 or 3 recruitable Townies -- otherwise the secret power would be too weak. (This is an argument for why two Magicians are plausible.) With Witches so strengthened we can assume Cabal have some special strength as well. However I still think it may be best to try hard to keep Guiri alive. He's the best scum-hunter among us, as he seems to have proved once again, and a revealed Cabal is little threat to Town. (His teammate(s) are threats, but that's true whether Guiri is dead or not.) As long as Guiri is alive and doesn't know we know he's Cabal we have the best of both ways.

So whatever else we do, I think we should "protect" Guiri slightly by smudging him slightly -- make it seem we've not Investigated him. (We need to hurry before Killers send in their Night Kills.)

I favor Protecting rather than Investigating. For one thing we need be in no hurry about outing a Wolf. Isn't Vindictus by now shrieking that he's Omega Wolf? I think our priority should be staying alive and getting back to full strength.

KidV is (we hope) soon-to-be Witch, but the Wolves don't know that. An outed Magician is "just" a bullet-proof Townie, so I think Wolves won't be in a hurry to spend their block-kill on KidV. It would be different if we had a special insight on which Night Wolves would spend their block-kill, but we can't Protect KidV every Night.

So my vote is to Protect a Witch.

Sept 11, 2012 18:03:44 GMT -8 witch1 said:

Here's a thought: With the Vampire likely Dead, the Wolves have to consider whether to use their block-kill and their regular kill against both of us, risking a third Witch reporting information. I think it's unlikely they'll kill both of us Tonight.

I don't understand this. The risk of Witches reporting is on-going until some of us are dead. I'd not be surprised if Wolves did indeed shoot at us with two barrels toNight.

[witch1]

You've got a point, Septy. The Wolves need us and the Seer Dead, and there's three dead Townies of unknown roles. Eating us is a good call for them, sooner or later.

Shall we go with a random pick as to which of us protects the other?

[witch1]

Guiri's votes:

D1 -- guiri has voted for Flying Squid with Goggles (254), SisterCoyote (254), Septimus (254), Wombat99 (254), Merestil Haye (254-367).

D2 -- guiri has voted for Septimus (51-110), Colby11 (51), SisterCoyote (51), vindictus (156-200), Askthepizzaguy (156).

D3 -- guiri has voted for Polluxo (24), Suburban Plankton (24), vindictus (24), gnarlycharlie (24), Flying Squid with Goggles (24), BillMc (119).

What's the likelihood he voted for Cabal at any time?

[witch4]

Let's let SisC call it if she appears before Dawn.

... And I won't try to double-think Guiri, one of the greatest living Mafia players!

But speaking of Guiri the Cabalist ... what's with KidV? Not a single Wolf has flipped yet, but he's busy assigning factions to all the Scum!

[witch1]

I noticed that -- especially how much he's convinced SisC is Wolf. Ain't he going to eat his shoe come Dawn.

Also, is Guiri really as good as you say, Septy? If so, I should take lessons from him on How Not To Draw D1/D2 Heat.

[witch4]

Guiri was uncanny in the recent Marathon Mafia on Idle's Board. He was Serial Killer but thought it best to Kill Scummies and went three-for-three or some such. Then he was Killed, subb'ed back in as Townie and continued to identify Scum without error so well that I thought he might be Scum and bussing teammates. I was going to try to study the game to grasp how he did it, but got sidetracked by RL.

When Scum, I think Guiri is good at surviving undetected until the end. I don't know if that happens often: if Guiri or BillMc goes 3 Days without being Night-Killed you've got to figure they're Scum.

Just to have an action on record:

Septimus Protects Scuba Ben

... but let Sister Coyote roll her magic die if she appears!

[witch1]

Concur with Septy, pending SisC showing up and weighing in

[Pleonast]

Sept 12, 2012 6:30:38 GMT -8 witch4 said:

Septimus Protects Scuba Ben

This is the consensus for now. I'll check back later to see if it's changed.

[witch6]

Oddly enough, that is what my Magic Die said! LOL

(I should take a picture of this d6. It's been with me since I first cut my teeth on tabletop RPGs.)

[witch6]

Guiri is shockingly good as Scum and almost won my Alice game for scum single-handedly.

[witch6]

And KidV thinks I'm a wolf?

Sigh.

[witch1]

Won't KidV be surprised when he reads this forum!

[witch4]

Thanks for the game, fellow Witches.

Right now I feel like the Witches at Salem .. burning at the stake despite their innocence.