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Post by Pleonast on Jul 11, 2008 11:15:06 GMT -8
Comments for Day Three
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 11, 2008 11:16:45 GMT -8
Wow, what a low kill count. Neither Dio (Vamp) nor Redwing (Vig) submitted orders, but Dio was blocked anyway. I think Redwing got too scared to kill again. The Witches were so close to protecting RoOsh instead of Hockey. A no-kill Night would've been hilarious.
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Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 11, 2008 11:40:16 GMT -8
Wow, what a low kill count. Neither Dio (Vamp) nor Redwing (Vig) submitted orders, but Dio was blocked anyway. I think Redwing got too scared to kill again. The Witches were so close to protecting RoOsh instead of Hockey. A no-kill Night would've been hilarious. Yeah, it'd be like Batman. A supposedly deadly game that went 10 Days/9 Nights. Oh, and FTR, I had the same impression about the Scotsman that Omi did. Nice to know he actually acts as a full doc. So far he's doing a good job of staying under the radar of everyone, but contributing an okay amount. And CAIS is still the best player town has right now. Even with him being wrong on a few things (understandable), he's doing the most analysis of any of them. Cabal is going to lose this one if they don't start being more proactive. I mean, they've had a bit of bad luck, but Cabal has made no impression at all in this game. They have to start being more aggressive, or they're going to be ripped apart by night kills. At this point my faction predictions: Cabal goes out first. Undead go out second. And Wolves and Town will have an interesting fight to the endgame. |
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 11, 2008 12:39:06 GMT -8
Looks like Omi just popped onto the radar. Doh! I wonder if he'll claim if turns into bandwagon, and if he does, if he'll reveal is Secret power. Tough call.
Wolves are convinced that CAIS is a Vampire who claimed Detective to trick them into attacking him. They don't think a real Detective would've claimed so boldly. They'll be blind-sided when he reveals Diggit killed RoOsh ToNight. But with 5 more Wolves, they're looking good.
With the Seer Koldanar now with the Necro's ID, the Undead are in serious trouble. Once the number of Zombies gets higher, he'll claim and get dotchan lynched. That'll leave the Vamps trying to hide in an ever-contracting pool of unknowns.
The Cabal are hardly playing. Almost no discussion on their boards. That's their best power--coordinating and vetting ideas off each other. But with one Witch dead and their unblockable kill, they still have a chance. The Town is totally underestimating their number.
I think the odds are still even for each team, except for the Undead with a lower chance. Unless the Seer dies before getting a chance to reveal the Necro.
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Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 14, 2008 4:55:48 GMT -8
I think the odds are still even for each team, except for the Undead with a lower chance. Unless the Seer dies before getting a chance to reveal the Necro. Mechanics-wise, I'd say the undead have the worst chance right now due to good investigations from town. But, since the Cabal aren't playing in the game thread (and from what you say aren't doing a whole lot on their own board, either) they will probably get eliminated before the Vamps do. Both Dio and Naf are good players, and can last a while. Also, since it's likely the vig is going to suicide, they don't have any night kills to really worry about. (I imagine Cabal will want to save theirs for a witch.) (Bear in mind, I'm catching up right now after a few days of not following, so in the 130 posts or so added since, the situation may have changed.) |
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Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 14, 2008 5:07:38 GMT -8
I just noticed something.
Nanook is as good as dead now.
IIRC, the discussion was for him to say when a witch died before it was revealed to the town as normal. Since it's unlikely he's going to guess at RoOsh being a witch and saying so, he's going to be exposed.
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Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 14, 2008 5:56:33 GMT -8
And after catching up, I realize much of what I said is moot.
Nanook is definitely dead now. Even without Roosh being revealed as a witch. I honestly think Dio playing it straight isn't a bad strategy to take. Too bad for undead that the Necromancer is discovered.
So, yeah, at this point, the undead will likely go out first, though, the Cabal are playing the worst.
And Omi is lucky that there are more compelling lynch targets for the next few Days. Heck, he might even get investigated by someone and will come up town. Town really can't afford to expose their Doctor, considering the Witchdoctor is dead.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 14, 2008 6:35:50 GMT -8
Well, they don't even know they have a Doctor.  The Town's main problem is the Witches don't really have any new information, since Nanook has been lucky enough to guess their investigations. And now that RoOsh is dead, they only have one power per Night. The Cabal just might pull it off, if they get real lucky and nail a Witch with their kill. They'll have to use it ToNight, though. If another Witch dies, the two remaining Cabal have a real shot at staying under the radar. The Town might end up thinking they're playing a Town vs Wolves endgame, when it's really a Cabal vs Wolves game! Undead are going to have a real problem surviving now. |
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