|
|
Post by Pleonast on Jul 18, 2008 11:05:43 GMT -8
Any comments?
|
|
|
|
Post by squiddy on Jul 18, 2008 12:23:34 GMT -8
I'm a little surprised we don't have an early bandwagon stringing up Diggit yet. it seems to be the way of things: settle on a lynch and then mope around trying to stir some conversation up.
That, of course, doesn't really work because there hasn't been any real conversation for the past couple of days to go over.
Two dead Witches, right? Cabal's halfway to winning... all they need to do now is survive.
|
|
|
|
Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 18, 2008 12:28:13 GMT -8
Ouch, two witches dead.
MHaye might as well come out now. There is no benefit to him staying in. He is no threat to anyone and he's powerless. Everyone will know in two days that there is only one witch remaining anyway, which means the Cabal have met a win condition. His outing of the info will be useful.
And what he doesn't know, is that by coming out now, he can put himself out as a target for cabal to waste their one shot because the only one who knows that the witches are a non-factor now is him. The Cabal do not know that they have met one of their win conditions, so they will leap at the chance to kill him. The only risk for town is cabal realizing that the likely reason at this point for a witch to come out is that the witch is the only one remaining. But MHaye won't know this.
And the wolves are going to have to start whacking cabal, or they are going to lose to them. Town is Cabal's best ally right now with wolves galore being exposed.
Things were looking bad for Cabal in the beginning, but it's shaping up well for them.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pleonast on Jul 18, 2008 14:11:05 GMT -8
The odds have definitely shifted, but no one know it yet (the joy of delayed info). I'd place odds at:
Cabal, 40% -- I'm not sure how much anyone expects a fifth Cabalist. They'll probably expect one more after they lynch Nanook, but it's hard to find one player who doesn't kill. The Seer is the Cabal's only remaining threat (besides an unlucky Night-kill). How long can the Seer go without claiming?
Wolves, 30% -- They still have 6 Wolves, including the Omega. Diggit will die Today, and Hal and fluid have been invesitigated. But that still leaves 3 more.
Town, 20% -- Witches are powerless now. If MHaye claims soon, the Cabal may use their kill on someone else, like the Seer. Very bad if they both come out soon, but I think they'll be smart enough not to. The problem is most of the Town's tools are geared against the other scum and are especially helpful against the Cabal. Tough times, and I notice that story realizes perfect lynching isn't enough.
Undead, 10% -- Own goal! Vamps can't be cross-killed (unless the Cabal uses their one-shot), so it'll be an old-fashioned serial-killer hunt. I think the numbers work against survival to the end.
|
|
|
|
Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 22, 2008 3:52:23 GMT -8
Hmmm...so any theories as to why MHaye hasn't exposed himself yet?
Maybe I'm not seeing it due to perfect knowledge, but he has no power left and can't stop cabal anymore so his exposure won't hurt anything.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pleonast on Jul 22, 2008 6:11:40 GMT -8
I think he's waiting for Roosh's role reveal.
|
|
|
|
Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 22, 2008 7:42:30 GMT -8
I think he's waiting for Roosh's role reveal. Ahhh, makes sense. It still buys him a day before HM is outed, so people still won't know the witches are powerless. But if he doesn't come out toMorrow, he's going to lose any leverage he has. Getting the Cabal to take him out will be a large boon to the town. |
|
|
|
Post by Pleonast on Jul 22, 2008 10:41:16 GMT -8
And in another event of weird synchronicity, the Freemasons all target the same player again. Today it's Koldanar, Day Two it was RoOsh. Weird!
|
|
|
|
Post by hoopyfrood on Jul 22, 2008 11:55:59 GMT -8
Yeah, I was just about to comment on that. It's like the Masons are all sharing one brain, but aren't aware they are doing so.
|
|
