CatInASuitHmm, what an interesting Day that was. It some ways it asked as many questions as it answered.
Intial analysis of the situation is given a guess of 16 Town, 7 Wolf, 5 Cabal, 3 Undead at the start.
Town Known (7): CoG888, CatInASuit, RoOsh, Hockey Monkey, brewha, Redwing, Santo Rugger
Town Suspect (4): Koldanar, MHaye, Oredigger77, Drain Bead
Wolf Known (2): pedescribe, DiggitCamara
Wolf Suspect (2): Hal Briston, fluiddruid
Cabal Known (2) :NaturalBlondChap, Darth Sensitive
Cabal Suspect (1) : Nanook of the North Shore
Undead Known (2) : Boozahol Squid, P.I., dotchan
Undead Suspect (0) :
Unknown Live (9): cckerberos,storyteller0910, peekercpa, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, NAF1138, One and Only Wanderers, Hawkeyeop, Pollux Oil, Omi no Kami
Unknown Dead (2): ShadowFacts, ZSofia
This leaves us in the Unknown pool of 5 Town, 3 Wolves, 2 Cabal and 1 Undead.
And finally, the number left possibly alive is 9 Town, 3 Wolf, 2 Cabal and 1 Undead. However if ShadowFacts and ZSofia are both town, it makes it a lot closer. However, it is definitely winnable for any faction out there.
A couple things spring to mind. Redwing being the Vigilante raises several questions and answers some more.Of course, this just raises the question of where did that extra Night Kill come from on Night 4, and secondly given Hal's cry to take down the power roles, why haven't they taken out storyteller earlier? If the Witches have a blanket Night Kill block, now would be the time to use it. Also Drain Bead could become vital above MHaye and Koldanar. Why because she can confirm multiple people in one Night. Assuming they are still alive of course.
As for OreDigger77, if he was the Warlock, why did he not leave it on me, given as a claimed detective I have been a Night Target since Night 1. Oh well. Anyway there is a confirmed mob, that the Wolves and Vampire will hit. I expect two kills toNight for the town to sort out.
As for Odds of winning for each faction.
Town: 50%
Wolf: 30%
Cabal: 10%
Undead: 10%
I think the town is in a strong position at the moment, but it does depend on what roles have just died. I am going to assume that ShadowFacts and ZSofia are both town.
And finally, I expect access to the forbidden boards shortly as well as a chance to see what everyone has been thinking about the game.