Day Six: Comments

[Pleonast]

Comments?

[Pleonast]

I think the Cabal is going to win. The mass claim heavily favors them, since they can confer with each other to swap around ideas and vet the claims. It'll be a long shot for the other scum factions to win, but certainly doable.

[hoopyfrood]

No scotsman doctor last night?

[catinasuit]

Well, it has certainly been interesting catching up on everything that has happened.

Can we get access to the Witch/Cabal/Wolf boards as well?

As for being right a lot, it happens, but as I keep pointing out, no-one ever listens to me ;D

[Pleonast]

The Scotsman hasn't been using the Doctor power lately, using the default self-protect instead. With perfect info, it's probably the best choice, but I'm not sure why he's going that way.

The Witches/Wolves/Cabals have boards on completely separate websites to avoid the information leakage about numbers that we had last Conspiracy. I'll open them up once the game is over, but it's too much work for me to approve users on those boards individually.

[catinasuit]

So several role claims later and here we get to see the good and the bad of them.

NAF1138 has a good claim, if anyone tries anything, his vampiric ability will back it up.

Cookies is a bad claim. Not because of what she said she did, but because of what she didn't do. She now has to explain why she did not target DiggitCamara on Night 2 or Nanook on Night 3, but instead went for NBC on Night 1 and fluiddruid on Night 4.

Oh and why oh why did Hawkeyeop not target Drain Bead on that Day as a freemason?

Time to see what Pollux Oil and ZSofia come up with.

[Pleonast]

The Freemason situation is hilarious. OaOW displays ignorance about his own role. And Hawkeye made a dumb choice the previous Day. The situation is a great help for Drain Bead extending her bluff.

I wonder what will happen when someone notices the some of the claimed Freemason say they targeted the same players on the same Day.

[catinasuit]

I think that storyteller has cracked it in the same way BlaM did in the first game.

I cannot see the town mislynching from this point on, all that matters is the order in which they do lynch. A quick run though shows that they as long as they don't mislynch they can win the game successfully.

At this point only the Town and Cabal really have a chance of winning, the other two are out at this point. Too many people have been confirmed for the scum to hide. However, if they fail to lynch the Cabal before the other two groups, the Cabal will win. I wonder if they will recognise that.


On to the end game, methinks.

[catinasuit]

Just something from an earlier Day.

Jul 24, 2008 10:13:00 GMT -8 hoopyfrood said:

And this type of analysis is what I've been waiting on from story for a while now. Really, he and CIAS together are a formidable anti-scum force. Too bad they seem to never get along....

I think this is a matter of trust. The last couple of Games we have been on different sides, which doesn't help and having talked my way out of lynches muddies the situation. I do wonder if storyteller takes anything I say at face value or is always looking for a hidden meaning.

If we ever wound up as masons or, heaven forbid, scum together; it could be very interesting ;D

I would be interested to find out what storyteller thinks as well.

[hoopyfrood]

Heh, heh.

Naf's list of suspects contains all the remaining scum (except for himself), no townies, and no one's listening to him. He is underestimating the danger of the cabal, though.

And assuming Naf gets lynched, what would you do as the true Scotsman? If you try to protect any other useful role, you basically open yourself up for a kill, and your death will seem to indicate that you aren't a Scotsman. (Since town doesn't know that the secret power use nullifies the Scotsman's protection.) Furthermore, the most useful town power out there right now (i.e. seer) is likely to be blocked by Cabal, so the role is pretty useless right now anyway. On the other hand, if you self-protect, you are only somewhat confirmed, because no one other than your scum killer can verify that they made an attempt on you.

Personally, I think they should lynch one of the claimed Scots. It'll give them the most info, and confirm that townie. Of course, I say that fully knowing no town role was doubled-up. If they think the possibility is there, lynching only confirms a townie and says nothing about the other guy. This is where a vig would be useful. Lynch one Scot, Vig the other. Of course, they do have a claimed vig, so I still think the wisest choice would be for them to take this route.

I think Naf's finished at this point, though, regardless of him being lynched toDay or not. Cabal and town still have an equal chance of winning, and the wolves are doing slightly better than undead.

[hoopyfrood]

One more point:

I really like Naf's baiting of Cookies to try and kill him.

[catinasuit]

This is getting silly. I think storyteller is about to blow a gasket.

Divine assistance - sorry, you thought I was scum ;D

I can see NAF1138 getting lynched today and Cookies getting lynched tomorrow when Drain Bead does not turn up dead.

More amusing will be in the last minute flurry of votes if the town manages to no-lynch.

As for the scotsman, he should use his power tonight. Why, because the scum know Omi No Kami is the scotsman and to try and target him would be a wasted attack. No, they will go for someone else, because the Cabal are going to block Koldanar.

Personally, I would protect Koldanar. Why, because the scum would never expect it.

[hoopyfrood]

Aug 6, 2008 10:33:50 GMT -8 catinasuit said:

As for the scotsman, he should use his power tonight. Why, because the scum know Omi No Kami is the scotsman and to try and target him would be a wasted attack.

Ack. You're right. My perfect knowledge was sneaking in again. Of course, we know that his execution of the secret power renders him vulnerable, but scum don't know that.