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Post by Pleonast on Apr 5, 2011 11:11:50 GMT -8
Boogie time
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 12:01:04 GMT -8
I can't imagine Tex not being lynched tomorrow the way everything looks. The end of day demotion is not going to help much. I absolutely think we need to use that extra kill now. After killing the 2 masons, the only town left to vote are Stanislaus, Idle, and fluid, and the ranks are:
fluid Idle Red glowacks Stanislaus NAF (peeker) (Tex)
Red presumably releases peeker now that he checks out as Loyal, and they need 4 votes. I will certainly be putting votes up in case peeker or NAF start voting, but I should be available to change them at the last minute if it saves someone.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 12:08:56 GMT -8
It might also be reasonable to leave a glimmer of town hope for Tex by killing fluid and Idle, but I don't think we can ever get a drop of suspicion on the Masons; Inner stickler claimed way too early and from very little heat, leaving him wide open to a counterclaim. We might be able to argue it was a calculated risk, especially given fubbleskag not claiming until later and while under a ton of heat, but I don't think the town will find it very likely that there were no mates at all in this game. Kill them now and be done with them; to the town there's always a chance Idle is ring leader, but the chance of there being no masons is practically zero.
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Post by mutineer1 on Apr 5, 2011 14:00:00 GMT -8
Actually, demoting inner was a pro town move for texcat. It essentially protects inner from being lynched.
If we kill fluid, it will be 5-1-3 at the start of the day.
Tex Idle Red Inner glowacks fubble stanislaus NAF (peeker)
At some point in the day tex issues a brig order for idle, and I issue a brig confirm for idle. Then I immediately demote Inner (if Idle hasn't already demoted someone). We would want to coordinate this action near the end of the day so that NAF can't return and screw this up
The game is now (4-2-3) and they need 4 votes to lynch anyone, and we're out in the open as scum.
The game looks like this:
Tex Red glowacks Inner fubble stanislaus NAF (peeker) (Idle)
With only 3 town voters they cant lynch. We can then unvote everyone, force a no-lynch or a naf lynch (probably not likely). Then kill NAF the following night to make the game (3-2-3). Following day brig a Mason (2-3-3) for the win.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 16:50:33 GMT -8
That plan looks like it could work, but assumes 2 things:
1) NAF won't vote. We can work around this by doing it late in the day, but we have to decide on this plan NOW.
2) Idle does something other than promote me before we enact our plan. This we can work around by doing it at daybreak, but that runs in opposition to #1.
Consider the fall-out from killing fluiddruid. It seems like an entirely irrational thing to do; why would we kill someone who is quite likely to be lynched the next day, especially with 3 confirmed town? Tex almost has to be seen as scum right now, so the obvious answer is to get Tex into Captain and in combination with the demotion, Red into security. They might then see that with Idle brigged, Red jumps to XO and I could be promoted to complete the takeover. That lands us all in hot water, and they'd have days to try to get NAF to vote. I can't see them all being totally oblivious to it.
As much fun as it would be to stage a take-over like that, I don't think we're that desperate given the risk. Red and I are not under any particularly thick scrutiny compared to the other active unconfirmed (fluid/Stanislaus). Tex is, however, and the vote record doesn't look good. Assuming Tex is going to be lynched toMorrow regardless, we can get a free kill out of it but we'd have to do that now.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 17:31:04 GMT -8
Another way to look at it: there's two possibilities, one early in the day, one late.
The early-day take-over effectively makes the entirety of the rest of the game about whether NAF will vote. It would be an incredibly dumb way to lose, and I'd feel silly winning that way too.
A late-day take-over would be possible if the Town sees the death of fluid as implying Idle will promote Red then combine powers with Tex to brig Inner Stickler, and then Idle does nothing to make it appear otherwise. I don't think they'd see it that way, and Idle could do anything but promote Red to acquit himself. Any scenario with Tex and Inner Stickler as scum must include fubbleskag as the third, so I would be implicated as the third scum once Idle acts. So we're hanging our hopes on Idle being oblivious.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 17:40:06 GMT -8
I thought about a particular scenario in the past, and it might be hard to implement, but it's possible.
To start, we do the Daybreak takeover and out ourselves. They each get three votes, there's 3 scum, and they all have to vote for one of us in order to lynch us. If they all vote for all three and none of us vote for each other, it's a no lynch as there's no possible way to break the tie! If they want a decisive vote, two of them will have to vote for someone else, specifically someone that's town. That gives us the chance to pile on our votes onto one of those people.
It does mean we'll all have to be active near the dead-line in order to get our votes in as late as possible, or at least have enough active to match any town vote movement. The best part about it is that it "breaks" Pleonast's setup. 4 town cannot lynch 3 scum because of how the votes work.
This has to be a day-break takeover with immediate action from Tex and Red in order to prevent Idle from fouling it up; we *need* another town brigged for it to work. If you guys are going to be available to do it right after the reveal, I'll support it.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 18:04:06 GMT -8
Specifically, here's how the votes might run:
Tex: no votes Red: no votes glowacks: no votes Inner: Tex, Red, glowacks Fubble: Tex, Red, glowacks Stan: Tex, Red, glowacks NAF: Tex, Red, glowacks
Vote tally:
Tex (4): Inner, Fubble, Stan, NAF Red (4): Inner, Fubble, Stan, NAF glowacks (4): Inner, Fubble, Stan, NAF
No lynch! No tie breaker possible.
They still need 4 votes, so two votes have to move off of us. Say Inner moves from Red and glowacks to NAF and peeker.
Tex: peeker, NAF, Inner Red: peeker, NAF, Stan glowacks: peeker, NAF, Idle Inner: Tex, peeker, NAF Fubble: Tex, red, glowacks Stan: Tex, Red, glowacks NAF: Tex, Red, glowacks
Vote Tally:
NAF (4): Tex, Red, glowacks, Inner peeker (4): Tex, Red, glowacks, Inner Tex (4): Inner, Fubble, Stan, NAF Red (3): Fubble, Stan, NAF glowacks (3): Fubble, Stan, NAF
In this specific scenario there's no lynch either, but we could easily throw votes around to get a clear winner that's town. The problem is that Inner could just move his votes around, and all three of us would have to chase him down to the wire. That means so long as anyone of them is available down to the wire, we'll probably lose.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 18:13:29 GMT -8
We might get a chance the next day if we fail. We would need to at Daybreak immediately have our XO switch to security to prevent any further prisoner release, and we'd need to re-brig anyone that NAF would have cracked (which might require an order from the captain). Whoever would be getting flipped up to XO we then Night kill.
We'd be in the same situation with regard to needing both of us to change our votes in accordance to how the town votes to break their own tie.
I really don't want to run with this plan though. I think it's extremely silly to have the game come down to who's faster at changing votes. I mainly bring it up because it's a potential legitimate strategy if we ever get down to what would normally be LyLo, either 4-3 or 3-2, and I'm unsure whether Pleo was considering it when he developed the voting rules. I understand that we also will win if NAF doesn't come back and vote, but both are really cheap ways of winning, and I'd like for my own future benefit play out this game "normally" until we have an absolutely forced win.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 5, 2011 19:02:48 GMT -8
In summary, I will agree to a Dawn take-over if you're both prepared to be doing things right at Dawn and Dusk. While there are two ways to win from there, both feel slightly unsportsmanlike to me and I mainly would do it to push the game into the situation where 4 town might not be able to lynch 3 outed scum, so to highlight the silliness of the voting rules. I also don't think a Dusk take-over is going available because analysis of fluid's death will likely cause Idle to do something we don't want.
If we're not going with a take-over plan, I strongly suggest Tex uses the extra kill and that we kill Inner Stickler and fubbleskag (I volunteer since I can do it safely tonight). If they lynch Tex they are at LyLo, and if they mislynch instead Red cracks Tex for the win. I don't think the towniness of the promotion will really save Tex toMorrow; I guess we might see something from night discussion but I'm not crossing my fingers. If Tex gets lynched toMorrow without using the extra kill, they still have a mislynch to spare.
I'm headed to bed and will be around in the morning from around ten until noon eastern, then gone until the evening.
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Post by mutineer3 on Apr 5, 2011 19:13:09 GMT -8
I will do whatever you two decide.
I'm still trying to figure out why we lynched crackrat to make it 6-1-3 instead of fluid which would make it 5-1-4 and we could have killed 2 for a victory.
I do think the late day town takeover makes more sense than the early town takeover.
If we decide to kill 2, we can kill whoever we want. Red can watch and report on whoever I kill since I will be in brig and exposed as scum anyway. We could kill fluid and Idle which would still leave you 2 in charge of the brig.
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Post by mutineer1 on Apr 5, 2011 20:41:39 GMT -8
The plan i proposed may be too risky. But we did need to have it out in the open, so we can discuss it.
I don't think we should use the bonus kill tonight. Having a man that near the top is valuable, and we shouldn't throw that away for a kill that would balance itself out.
Here's an alternate possibility:
We kill fubb tonight. He's been voting and been confirmed. It makes sense that I would be watching Inner, so null tells all around.
That puts us at 5-1-3 at the start of the day with 2 confirmed and 1 semi confirmed. So the confirmed v unknown pool is 3 vs 6. It's not enough for town to be able to push any strong plans through, since 5 votes is required to lynch once I let peeker out.
And remember with NAF not being in the game, Town needs All five participating town to vote the same player to lynch scum. If peeker is gone too, which he might be, he has been absent elsewhere, but has been known to come and go sometimes. (Hope you're okay, peeker!) Then town cannot lynch scum tomorrow.
I'm in favor of this: glowacks kills fubbleskag.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 6, 2011 6:02:31 GMT -8
I concur with glowacks kills fubbleskag.
There are currently 9 voters, 8 after we make our regular kill. That's 4 votes, which they'd have in fluid, Idle, Inner, and Stan. They don't need to release peeker or have him show up - they just have to wait for him to show up to have him released. If Tex uses the kill it reduces the number of town voters by one and the number of total voters by 2, not really changing anything.
The question comes down to the chance that Tex is lynched toMorrow if we don't use the kill. I personally find it extremely likely, if not given. Tex was next in line to be lynched, and didn't vote for Crackrat while fluid who had an equal number of votes did. The townish promotion might help things a little, but I don't think it'll be enough; it hardly dissuades me at all from my town perspective. Since we disagree on this apparently, I'll leave it to Tex to decide whether to kill Inner Stickler or hope to not get lynched.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 6, 2011 6:07:00 GMT -8
I'm still trying to figure out why we lynched crackrat to make it 6-1-3 instead of fluid which would make it 5-1-4 and we could have killed 2 for a victory. If Crackrat had submitted a full slate of votes that included fluiddruid, then I would have unvoted him and voted someone else right at the wire. Without that vote though, there was nothing we could do as fluid held the tiebreaking vote.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 6, 2011 6:15:41 GMT -8
T It's not enough for town to be able to push any strong plans through, since 5 votes is required to lynch once I let peeker out. Idle is the security chief. I guess at the end of the Day if Idle hasn't released peeker, peeker's still absent, and there's 4 town votes for Tex, Tex promotes you, you let him out, and I drop my vote for Tex? While it could work, it will require us to out ourselves so will need to be done fairly soon before the end of the day when we know peeker and NAF won't get votes in. After a no-lynch, we use our night kills on fluid and inner, and it's red Idle glowacks with numbers at 4-3. Before Idle can demote me, I release Tex while brigging someone that Red orders arrested. That puts us at 3-3 with tiebreaker and a win. Requires our presence and Idle's lack of presence at Daybreak though, and we'd have outed ourselves the previous Day.
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Post by mutineer4 on Apr 6, 2011 6:46:17 GMT -8
Ok, maybe the whole promotion thing will help more than I initially thought, and having Tex use the kill immediately afterward will make it look like the promotion was scummy in nature since Tex had no reason to act like town. That would cause suspicion to devolve on Red, especially if Red comes back and fingers Tex as it would heavily imply the reason for the promotion was to get Red town-cred for watching Tex kill. So while we might lose Tex's kill, using it now might cause undue suspicion on Red. We might have Red report on watching Idle instead, who is a perfectly reasonable target given his higher rank.
Keep in mind we only need 1 mislynch if Tex uses the kill, and none of this brings any suspicion at all on me.
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Post by Pleonast on Apr 6, 2011 7:39:06 GMT -8
I'm seeing "glowacks kills fubbleskag".
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Post by mutineer3 on Apr 6, 2011 8:27:43 GMT -8
Glowacks killing fubbles sounds good to me. I am not going to kill anyone tonight. I think we still need one more townie lynch for the win, and I think our best shot of getting one is toDay. If I kill, it almost guarantees a scum lynch of me. Then they get another shot at confirming a townie and the unknown pool might shrink even more, making it even harder tomorRow to lynch a townie.
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Post by mutineer3 on Apr 6, 2011 8:33:46 GMT -8
... and none of this brings any suspicion at all on me. LOL. Well, I guess that's the important part. We wouldn't want you to look suspicious and get investigated. ;D
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