Cabal -- Day Three

[cabal9]

Squid's tied for the lead.

Let him get lynched and take out Guiri, or claim and reveal our investigation?

I'm leaning claim. The timing seems right.

[cabal3]

I don't think we should claim anything as long as Squid is in danger of being lynched. If he does get lynched and doesn't die, that's probably going to make him the top priority for Tomorrow (if he even lasts that long). I don't think it's wise to reveal too much too soon.

guiri just voted for Bill, putting him in the lead. I know there's still plenty of time left in the Day, but even so it seems unlikely that guiri, a known (to us) Wolf would put his teammate in danger like that when there's really no compelling reason to do so. Therefore I'm pretty sure Bill is indeed a Magician, which makes vindictus a Wolf.

[cabal3]

Still hoping that Squid returns to us so that we can get another perspective on things...

[cabal9]

Polluxo's post #125 - interesting; are we looking at a BillMc/Vindictus/KidV/Guiri Wolf team? With KidV as Omega Wolf and that's why he investigated Town.

[cabal3]

I dunno...I'm pretty much completely lost at this point.

What I know

guiri is a Wolf
Ben is a Witch
Septimus is a Witch

beyond that...

I think it's entirely possible that Bill and KidV are both Magicians.
I have no idea why Bill is voting for himself, no matter what faction he is.
I can't figure out any reason for Bill, KidV, or vindictus to have false-claimed, but there's no way they are all Town. Either Bill or vindictus must be a Wolf, unless there's some Secret Power that affected our investigation last Night (which at this point is entirely possible...). My money is (currently) on vindictus being the Wolf there.

Right now Pizza is bothering me by being way too quiet. And I really have no real leans on the rest of the players...

[cabal9]

Oh, good! I'm not the only one completely lost. If they are both magicians - could our investigation of Bill have been redirected to Vindictus then redirected again to SisC, and SisC was the Wolf? There is a particular order in the rules that dictates how actions resolve, I'll go back and look at that.

[cabal9]

Wait. I'm confusing the claims. KidV claims magician and Vindictus claims freemason. Never mind.

[cabal3]

I'm trying to figure out who to double Today.

My choices at the moment are:

Septimus, Witch
Askthepizzaguy, claimed Vicar
BillMc, claimed Magician
KidVermicious, claimed Magician
vindictus, claimed Freemason
babale
gnarlycharlie
nesta
Polluxo
Red Skeezix

As far as those having 'powers we might find useful', the list goes

Septimus (investigation or protection)
Bill or KidV (redirection)
Pizza (in the sense that we could help thwart the Undead)
Vindictus (because we could potentially masquerade as Freemason)

This list assumes, of course, that all of the claims are true, which I'm pretty sure isn't the case. Unfortunately, the only person whose role I'm at all conficent in is Septimus.

I could always shot into the 'unknown pool', where I might find any of

Vampire - gives us an extra kill and denies one to the Undead
Necromancer - useless to us, but hurts the Undead
Wolf - gives us an extra kill and possibly denies one to the Wolves
Coroner - takes information away from the Town and gives it to us
Detective - takes information away from the Town and gives it to us
Scotsman - effectively turns me into a Scotsman and turns the Scotsman into a Vanilla
Seer - takes information away from the Town and gives it to us
Vigilante - gives us an extra kill and denies one to the Town
Warlock - protects us from the Warlock curse, could be useful to whittle down the other factions numbers
Witchdoctor - we don't want this; let someone else protect against Zombies

Or, I could do nothing Today, and wait to see what the reveals at Dusk...reveal. The downside of that is that I can't use my target's power toNight, and I don't prevent them from using it. The potential upside is that I might be able to make a more informed decision after seeing the reveals.

I don't want to take a blind shot Today. There are too many 'useless' powers, plus too many of those names are on people's 'short list' of lynch targets...and I don't want to be on the wrong end of that.

If I act Today, I think it's a choice between Septimus and 'the most likely to be a Wolf'. Personally, I think that is vindictus, but it's really nothing more than a gut feeling.




Also, remember that we can choose to remove our doubling power at our discretion. This may become necessary later in the game, once it's discovered.

[cabal9]

I think there is a significant risk in doubling Septimus. If two Witches are blocked and cannot protect each other, and no other role has a non-secret protective power, chances are good that someone will kill them and therefore us.

We do not necessarily need the redirect power of the Magician, since we have that already. We need another kill, therefore Wolf or Vampire.

I think it comes down to KidV or Vindictus, or holding off until Tomorrow. If you hold off, I could investigate KidV; if he comes back Freemason, we know he is the Omega Wolf and is a good choice to double because I think he will avoid suspicion for a while.

Same for Vindictus, I could investigate him Tonight, but I think he is likelier to come under suspicion sooner with his lonely Freemason claim, so we might not get as much mileage out of the double.

[cabal8]

Shit - sorry about that folks. Going to do another post in the main thread, but I will let you know something important:

I failed to kill SisC last night. Someone else got her - not sure what that means, but I have some idea.

[cabal9]

Septimus's vote on Vindictus at #71 - is it possible that Witches investigated Vindictus and got a scum result? The vote seems out of place otherwise. But then why not just reveal that?

[cabal9]

Squid! You're back, yay!

[cabal3]

Sept 11, 2012 8:05:58 GMT -8 cabal8 said:

Shit - sorry about that folks. Going to do another post in the main thread, but I will let you know something important:

I failed to kill SisC last night. Someone else got her - not sure what that means, but I have some idea.

Interesting.

I was assuming the whole time that you killed her.

Did the message you got informing you of your failed kill give you any clue as to why you failed?

SisC wasn't protected (since she died)
You could have been blocked, but by whom? the only player other than us with a non-Secret block is the Alpha Wolf, who has a block-kill. But since you're not dead, that didn't happen. And if you had been targeted, the action should have been redirected to guiri anyway.

I wonder if SisC was the Scotsman, and she was targeted by multiple players. The rules say "You will survive the first lynch or attack that would otherwise kill you", but they aren't clear on what happens if targeted my multiple kills in the same Night. I've PM'ed Pleo to get clarification on that.

I'm thinking now that KidV is a Magician, and someone tried to kill him last Night, and was redirected to SisC.

[cabal8]

Wait. Just checked the votes, and I'm not actually in the lead? Shit. Sorry about that. This may be enough to get me lynched.

[cabal8]

Seems to me that if the Witches did get a result, they would have been more strong about it than the one vote on vind. I think they would have done much more than that.

I hope I'm back - from my posts you might be able to judge that I am not all mentally here...

I may also claim scotsman soon b/c I think SisC was, and the Wolves or Vampires won't know that since they presumably got the "successful kill" message. No, the message said nothing about why I failed to kill SisC, just that I did. Alternate possibilities to the Scotsman theory are that there's some sort of priority to the kill orders, that I was blocked, or that SisC was also target of someone's Secret Power we don't know about.

[cabal3]

So, are you trying to draw votes with your voting for Polluxo and Bill?

Because I can't really see any way to justify either of those at this point. And I've already called people out for voting for Filibuster and voting for Bill...I really ought to vote for you if I'm going to be consistent, but that will put you pretty close to the lead.


A Scotsman claim might buy you time, but not if you get lynched and guiri winds up dead...

[cabal3]

I'm not so sure about SisC being a Scotsman now. Pleo answered my PM and pointed me to the rules:

From the rules:
If multiple kills are attempted on a target, the attacker from the first role on this list will be used: Alpha Wolf, Werewolf, Vigilante, Vampire, Omega Wolf. The others will fail, even if the attempted one fails for another reason.

So if there are multiple kill attempts, only the first one (based on the priority list above) will go through; all others will fail.

And if SisC was a Scotsman, she should survive that one kill. Unless she was targeted by the Alpha Wolf's block-kill.

guiri is a Wolf, so your kill should have had priority over the others except for the Alpha Wolf block-kill. So it could be that the Alpha-Wolf targeted SisC and their kill went through, causing yours to fail. Or that the Alpha Wolf targeted KidV and was redirected to SisC.


I'm not sure that makes much sense. to sum up:

I think SisC was killed by the Aplha Wolf's block-kill (either targeted at her directly, or targeted at KidV and redirected to her).
I think your kill failed because the Alpha Wolf kill took priority.
SisC may or may not have been a Scotsman, because the Alpha Wolf is the one role that can defeat the Scotsman's protection.

Either all of that, or there was a Secret Power involved, in which case all bets are off.

[cabal3]

Squid,

Any thoughts as to who, if anyone, I should double Today?

Or should I take a chance and leave it for Tonight or Tomorrow?

[cabal3]

Wombat, if you're around before EoD, you need to put a vote down.

According to the rules:

"A living player who does not have an active vote at the end of the Day on either a player or on No Lynch will receive these penalties:
1. All of their powers (both targeted and passive) for that Day and the following Night will be blocked and fail.
2. A permanent penalty vote will be given to the player, effective immediately on that Day's final vote count."

Note it says that you will receive a penalty if you do not " have an active vote at the end of the Day on either a player or on No Lynch"...currently you have a vote only for "Filibuster"



If you look at the Vote Count thread now, you'll see that you have a Penalty Vote. And more importantly, if you don't vote, you won't be able to use any ability Tonight.

[cabal9]

I just did... I didn't intend to leave it so late but I got busy at work. What do you think about the double? Go for it Today or leave it?

[cabal9]

I think if you are going to take a shot in the unknown pile, go for Red Skeezix.

[cabal3]

I just put in an order to double Red.

I don't know if it's a good idea or not, but I'm kinda winging it here, because I'm pretty much completely lost.

[fingers crossed]

[cabal9]

Cool. Pending the Red Skeezix reveal -

Squid, who are you thinking about killing Tonight?

Thoughts on who I should investigate Tonight?

[cabal9]

vindictus is TRYING TO DIE again with freemason "mistakes."

It has to be some kind of kill that is redirected upon death.

Could they have a doppel secret power also???

[cabal9]

And Scuba Ben just incurred a penalty vote. WTF is up with everyone wanting to die?