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Post by Pleonast on Sept 6, 2012 13:26:15 GMT -8
Another fine Day for the Cabal.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 6, 2012 13:27:09 GMT -8
BillMc is Wolf.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 6, 2012 13:31:29 GMT -8
No death other than Squid's NK...
Vampire blocked and Wolf NK blocked...
Or Vampire is MIA (gnarly, babale, nesta)
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 6, 2012 13:39:00 GMT -8
So...should I double Bill? Or should we just kill him with his own teammate's power?
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 6, 2012 13:42:26 GMT -8
First of all - are there any circumstances where BillMc would investigate Wolf but really be something else....
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 6, 2012 14:05:09 GMT -8
It's possible that someone shot at the Scotsman and they survived.
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 6, 2012 14:06:34 GMT -8
First of all - are there any circumstances where BillMc would investigate Wolf but really be something else.... I don't think so. I suppose it's possible that the investigation was redirected, but I think the odds on that are exceedingly small, since redirection is the Cabal power in this game.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 6, 2012 14:07:12 GMT -8
Or a Vampire was shot at and was not killed.
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 6, 2012 14:12:53 GMT -8
It's possible that someone shot at the Scotsman and they survived. Also, someone might have taken a shot at one of the Witches and run into a protection. Of course, all the other factions have an incentive to keep at least one Witch alive until the Cabal is destroyed lest they hand us the win, so I'm not sure they would have taken that shot so early. Alternatively, someone might have tried to kill Squid and been redirected to Ben, who was protected.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 2:08:05 GMT -8
Expanding on Vindictus's post #9 - the only unknowns to us are
Nesta Gnarlycharlie Babale Polluxo Skeezix
There are 2 ? Wolves in that group. My best guess right now = Skeezix and Nesta.
Witches: Could we be so lucky as to be down to 2 witches?
And why does Vindictus say we can safely assume SisC was not Cabal?
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 2:18:52 GMT -8
Looks like this will be Wolf-hunting Day. That's mostly good for us, but if guiri gets lynched, Squid goes down. We need guiri to not get lynched. I need some general advice on how to play it if I get lynch pressure. Keep in mind I've never played anything but Town.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 2:33:34 GMT -8
What about this as a claim that any of us could use if facing the lynch - claim Vig; say that you vig-killed MHaye and SisC; that could stave off the lynch and buy time at least until Colby's role is revealed. (Assuming he was telling the truth). Then, we're lynched or NKd but our target gets hit anyway and we still don't die.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 5:44:29 GMT -8
I'm toying with the idea of you guys bussing me. It could shift attention away from Squid and Suburban, give you some townie cred, and take out Ben.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 11:36:40 GMT -8
All of this stuff from ATPG about Cabal and Town working together... is he just trying to lure out Cabal, or is Town in worse shape than I am realizing?
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 11:50:29 GMT -8
I'm torn on whether Suburban should double Bill or Septimus Today. Leaning Bill at the moment... If we can get the Witch numbers reduced to 2, they will be down to having an investigation OR a protection, and not both.
Suburban Kill Septimus Squid Kill Skeezix Wombat Invesigate Nesta
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 11:52:34 GMT -8
ooh hold up - BillMc just claimed Magician. Do we believe that claim?
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 7, 2012 11:56:22 GMT -8
I read that post from my phone while I was at lunch, and I had an idea. I'm not cure yet whether it's Brilliant or Stupid...but here goes...
Today, Wombet claims cabal, announces that our Secret Power is Investigative, and outs Bill as a Wolf.
Best case, Town believes him and lynches Bill, and Tonight the Wolves try to kill Wombat and wind up killing Ben.
Worst case, Town believes him but decides to lynch him anyway, and winds up lynching Ben instead...though outing Wombat as "something bad" and leaving him unprotected Tonight.
either way, I double Septimus Today, so I'll have his protection available Tonight if we need to protect Wombat. depending on who gets lynched today, we have either one or two Witch powers available to us Tonight, and the Witches have wither two powerless players, or one powerless and one dead.
The downside, of course, is that Wombat is outed, and probably won't survive long. We can probably protect him for a while, but that will hamper our ability to do much else.
And now that Bill has claimed Magician, that may change things. More in the next post...
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 7, 2012 12:04:32 GMT -8
ooh hold up - BillMc just claimed Magician. Do we believe that claim? We 'know' Bill is a Wolf because you investigated him last Night using Ben's stolen power. So what could cause a Witch investigation to go wrong? I can see only two things that could do that. First is a Cabal redirection, which didn't happen. The second is the Magician power; if Bill is the Magician and he targeted a Wolf last Night, then we would have gotten a Wolf result for him. So at the moment it's Bill's word vs. KidV's. Hmmm..... We could ask them both who they targeted last Night...no explanation for the question, just an intimation of "I might be able to tell if you're lying..." Or one of us could claim that we have an investigative result that says Bill is a Wolf, and ask him to explain. Or we can sit back and see if the Town will do our work for us, since it seems Today is probably going to be a 2-man race, with a side helping of "guys, we really need to find some Wolves"
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 7, 2012 12:21:39 GMT -8
So...if Bill is the Magician, then vindictus is a Wolf.
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 7, 2012 13:23:01 GMT -8
I'm torn on whether Suburban should double Bill or Septimus Today. Leaning Bill at the moment... If we can get the Witch numbers reduced to 2, they will be down to having an investigation OR a protection, and not both. Suburban Kill Septimus Squid Kill Skeezix Wombat Invesigate Nesta I'm not sure about the Night actions, but I think that I should double Septimus Today. The Town will absolutely positively not vote to lynch a Witch, so we are in zero danger of being lynched as long as they are alive. And if we so choose, we can use their protection on ourselves at Night and we become pretty much unkillable... Plus that renders two Witches powerless, which means that they might not be able to execute all of the investigations and/or protections that they want. Of course, as I type this, it occurs to me that maybe this isn't the best plan. the Wolves and Undead will be trying to eliminate the Wtches so that they cannot protect. And if we've doubled them, then attacks on them will turn into attacks on us, and we will have to protect ourselves every Night. We would wind up having to draw fire onto ourselves so that it would get redirected to the Witches...and we'd need to get ourselves 'lynched' in order to eliminate the Witches during the Day, which will of course put us as Cabal (or at lease as something "bad"). This is the problem with a Conspiracy game: it looks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck, but it ain't no duck. It's a different animal altogether, and normal thinking doesn't apply. this is only my second Conspiracy game, and in the last one I was constantly misjudging the state of things because I kept trying to treat it as a 'normal' Mafia game. I think I'm doing better in that regard here, but I'm not sure I'm doing well.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 13:31:42 GMT -8
If it gets down to the end game and you are still doubled and you need to kill Septimus.... Just pull a peeker, get multiple penalty votes, and lynch yourself.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 7, 2012 13:34:49 GMT -8
I think I like your plan of me claiming cabal and outing Bill. Would like Squid to weigh in also.
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Post by cabal3 on Sept 7, 2012 13:44:49 GMT -8
With Bill's claim, I think we should hold off on that plan for the moment, and see how the Day plays out. But I think it's something to keep in our back pocket should one of us get into serious trouble.
I too would like for Squid to some back and join us. Or for peeker to pop back in and give his opinion. More brains are always better in this game...
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 8, 2012 6:27:30 GMT -8
rereading your last paragraphs there - you are right, doubling Septimus could come back to bite us. So is doubling a Wolf better strategy? What I am having trouble working out is - we have powers; we have a fair bit of knowledge that others don't have; how do we take what we have and make sure the right players end up dead?
On the competing magician claims - do you think it is possible that the game has 2 magicians (Bill, Vindictus) but no freemasons? That would mean KidV could be the wolf.
If you could hold off on using your double until Tomorrow, we would have a lot more information and could make a better choice. What about this for Tonight:
Squid killls ___ ? I object-block you, just in case you object-block guiri, just in case (this would prevent a shot at guiri hitting Squid, correct?)
we're all protected and we go into Day 4 with the role reveals on Giraffe, MHaye, and Inner and faction on SisC and Colby.
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Post by cabal9 on Sept 8, 2012 6:31:17 GMT -8
You know what else we need - a zombie or two. Consider subject-blocking ATPG? Or assume that the necromancer (who must still be alive since peeker hasn't decayed) will take care of that?
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